For decades, Allan Lichtman, dubbed the “Nostradamus of US elections,” has accurately predicted presidential outcomes through his “13 Keys to the White House” model. This model, based on 13 true/false indicators, forecasts whether the incumbent party will retain power or lose, with six or more “false” answers suggesting a loss. Lichtman predicted Kamala Harris would win the 2024 election, citing eight favourable indicators for her, but the outcome defied his forecast. This rare misstep has sparked questions about the reliability of his model in a complex political landscape, particularly as it has accurately forecasted every election since 1984.
