Berlin, Dec 22 (DPA) German consumers are entering the new year in a sober mood, with a key survey released Tuesday expected to show a fall in confidence among households in Europe’s biggest economy.
Despite a buoyant end to the Christmas shopping season, analysts predict the Nuremberg-based GfK marketing group will say its forward-looking consumer confidence index slipped to 3.5 points for January after falling to 3.7 points in December.
Based on about 2,000 German households, the GfK’s survey comes against the backdrop of a sense of economic uncertainty left in the wake of the recession that engulfed the German economy this year.
Economists have been warning that German unemployment could rise next year Berlin begins to wind back the 85 billion euro ($122 billion) emergency fiscal plan it launched to helped shield the nation’s economy from the global downturn.
Moreover, the brittle mood among German consumers underscores the key role that the nation’s export machine rather than domestic demand is likely to play next year in ensuring the country’s economy remains on a growth track.
The downbeat view of the world among German consumers also stands in contrast to the business sector, with another key survey released last week showing confidence in the nation’s boardrooms rising for the ninth consecutive month in December.
In a major test of European industry sentiment, the closely- watched Ifo business confidence index beat analysts’ forecasts by edging up to a 17-month high of 94.7 points this month after it climbed to 93.9 in November.
At the same time, undeterred by bitterly cold winter weather and a muted economic recovery, German shoppers have mounted a last-minute rush on retailers as Christmas draws closer.
Retail sales last week had been “markedly stronger” than the same period last year, said Ulrike Hoerchens, a spokeswoman for Germany’s retail traders association (HDE).
In particular, coats, hats and gloves to help brave the freezing weather have been high on shoppers’ lists along with home electronic goods including flat-screen televisions and mobile phones.
Nevertheless, the HDE expects retail sales for November and December, to slip by 1.5 per cent to 73 billion euros compared to the same period in 2008 as price pressures increase in the nation’s fiercely competitive retailing business.
