Even before the dust has settled after the parliamentary elections, political parties have to gear up for another round of polls next month. Nor are they of marginal importance. The assembly elections in at least one of the three states – Maharashtra – is of high importance as virtually all such contests are in that crucial state.
Of the other two states, Haryana’s significance lies in demonstrating the electoral mood in northern India, and especially among major communities like the Jats. Only Arunachal Pradesh is less in focus, mainly because of its distance from the national capital, but the outcome is still of importance if only because it will show which of the two national parties – the ruling Congress and the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) – is ahead.
Maharashtra, however, is the real testing ground for these two parties because they are fairly closely placed in terms of seats and voting percentages. Although the ruling Congress has its nose ahead at present, mainly because of the continuing tremors in the Hindutva camp, it will undoubtedly keep its fingers crossed.
Notwithstanding the jump by the Congress in the number of parliamentary seats from Maharashtra to 17 this time from 13 in 2004 , there has been a fairly steep drop in its vote share to 19.6 percent from 23.7 percent. This decline has left it only one percentage point ahead of the BJP although it, too, experienced a drop to 18.1 percent from 22.6 percent and won nine seats against 13 in 2004.
The Congress’s ally, the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), did not fare too well either. Its tally of Lok Sabha seats fell to eight from nine, although its voting percentage went up to 19.2 percent from 18.3.
Similarly, the BJP’s ally, the Shiv Sena, lost one seat – 11 this time against 12 in 2004 – and three percentage points, from 20.1 percent to 17 percent. However, these trends show that there isn’t a wide gap between the two groups. The difference, for instance, between the number of assembly segments in the parliamentary poll won by the Congress and the NCP this year is only eight more than what was won by the BJP and the Shiv Sena – 130 to 122.
It is common knowledge in Maharashtra that the success of the Congress-NCP combine was mainly due to the inroads made into the saffron vote bank by the breakaway Navnirman Sena of Raj Thackeray, who is Shiv Sena chief Bal Thackeray’s estranged nephew. Had the Sena been united, it would have given the Congress-NCP a run for its money.
However, since the division in the Sena ranks remains, the Congress and the NCP can breathe a sigh of relief – if they themselves do not break up over seat sharing. But this group can still face a problem from the newly-formed 21-member front led by the Republican Party, which can wean away sections of the Dalit and minority votes.
The bumbling response of the Vilasrao Deshmukh government to 26/11 and the subsequent revelations of the lack of preparedness of the security forces are also substantial minus points against the Congress-NCP government.
Unlike the closeness of the contest in Maharashtra, the tilt is in the Congress’s favour in Haryana where it won nine of the 10 Lok Sabha seats this year – the same as in 2004. The only difference was that the remaining seat was won this time by the Haryana Janhit Party (HJC), led by former Congress leader Bhajan Lal. The BJP had won it five years ago.
In the assembly, too, the Congress has a commanding presence with 63 out of the 90 seats. Clearly, the revival of the party since 2004-05 is continuing after a longish spell out of power when the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) ruled the roost.
While this turnaround in the Congress’s fortunes may be due to the return to the party of the Jats, who comprise more than 20 percent of the population, there is little doubt that Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda, who is a Jat, has generally proved to be a capable leader.
It was his confidence in the Congress’s growing influence which made him bring the assembly elections forward by about seven months. One reason why the move may succeed is the BJP’s present problems and the break-up of its alliance with the INLD.
A similar rupture in the tie-up between the HJC and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is bound to help the Congress. The alliance collapsed apparently because Bhajan Lal wanted to include the BJP in it after the latter’s split from the INLD, but the BSP was unwilling.
As in Haryana, the Congress can also look forward to a fairly easy ride in Arunachal Pradesh, where it has 45 seats in the 60-member legislature, up from 34 in 2004. It also had little difficulty in winning both the parliamentary seats from the state this year. All in all, therefore, the Congress can look forward to the ensuing contests with a fair degree of confidence.
