Vienna, July 15 (IANS/WAM) Driven by the global economic recovery, the world oil demand is projected to grow by 1 million barrels (mb/d) per day to 86.4 mb/d in 2011, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has said in a report.
‘Demand growth will come primarily from non-OECD countries, mainly China, India, the Middle East and Latin America. On the product side, demand for industrial fuels will be strong as a result of the ongoing economic recovery.
‘Demand for transportation fuels is also forecast to increase. In the US, gasoline demand is assumed to return to its normal growth trend, although dependent on the pace of the recovery, as well as government policies,’ the OPEC said in its July market report.
‘One factor expected to play an important role in next year’s oil demand is retail oil product price developments which will be impacted by tax policies and subsidies, potentially leading to a moderation in the recovery in oil demand.
‘Non-OPEC supply is forecast to grow 0.3 mb/d in 2011 to 52.2 mb/d, supported by Brazil, Canada, Azerbaijan, Colombia and Kazakhstan, while Britain, Norway and Mexico are expected to experience declines,’ it added.
India and the Middle East are expected to grow year-on-year 0.1 mb/d and 0.2 mb/d respectively for 2011.
Although agriculture, industrial and transport sectors are expected to be strong in India next year, the partial removal of price subsidies and other government policies are downside risks for oil demand growth in 2011. Transport, construction and petrochemical sectors will be the main drivers behind the strong Middle East oil demand next year as has been the case in 2010.
China is expected to contribute the most to world oil demand growth in 2011. China’s successful measures to minimize the negative effects of the world economic crisis will also continue in 2011. China’s apparent oil demand is forecast to grow by 0.4 mb/d in 2011, the report said.
–IANS/WAM
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